Tom’s Tidbits for April 2025

2018 Tom Tidbit Button smallHow the “tariff thing” will affect us… and you.

Greetings,

It’s one of the most common questions floating around today in one form or another:  “What’s happening with those tariffs Trump’s talking about?”  We’ve heard it from governments and politicians, we’ve heard it from friends, we’ve asked it in our own families, and we’ve heard clients ask it in the shop.  While we can’t speak to the effects either globally or at kitchen tables, we can tell you what we’re expecting and how we’ll deal with it here at Tom Dwyer.

We share the confusion and dread that seems to be associated with the entire tariff issue.  No business wants to see their costs rise, much less if they have no idea what kind of rise to plan for.  No individual wants to see the prices rise at a business they deal with, much less if the prices are rising at every business.  We know changes are coming and that none of the scenarios look good, but like you, we have no idea when they’ll hit or how bad they’ll be.

But even with doubt we have to plan, and there’s good/bad news on that front.  When you pick up your vehicle we give you an itemized list of everything we did (and everything you should be thinking about for the future).  The total cost breaks down into two parts, Labor and Parts.  The good news is that our Labor Rate is based on paying domestic employees without much dependence on imports from any country at all, so WE DON’T EXPECT OUR LABOR RATE TO RISE AS A DIRECT RESULT OF TARIFFS.  The bad news is (or could be) on our PARTS costs.  We order all our parts from local suppliers but they’re only distributors for manufacturers, and there are very few domestic manufacturers of auto parts.  Whatever our suppliers charge us, we mark that up and pass it on to you.  WE DON’T PLAN TO INCREASE OUR PERCENTAGE MARKUP BECAUSE OF TARIFFS, but if our base price rises then your price will rise as well.  Whether the parts come from Mexico, Asia, Europe, or elsewhere, when (and if) the tariffs hit then you’ll see the difference on your next repair.   Of course we can’t speak for other shops but it’s hard to imagine the situation will be different anywhere else.

It may be tempting to think tariffs originate in the fever dreams of the Trump administration.  They certainly bear responsibility for the current (or eventual) way tariffs are being implemented, but they aren’t exclusively Trump’s invention.  Tariffs have been used since the founding of our country but even we didn’t come up with the idea; it goes all the way back to ancient Greece and Rome.  The history of tariffs is stiff reading even for the wonkiest, but it’s important and I’ve included some relevant links in our Digging Deeper section below.

A stated purpose of this new tariff regime is to bring back American manufacturing and rebuild the economic base that’s been destroyed over the last 50 years.   That’s a worthy goal, and one we’ve loudly supported for years.  But according to people much more qualified than your local mechanic, the way they’re being implemented won’t achieve that goal and will probably cause serious damage to the dwindling manufacturing base not only here but around the world.  Either way, we’ll be here with you to hope for the best and find out the reality.

Make a great day,

aaazTomSignature

Digging Deeper…

What Ancient Rome can tell us about the fate of Trump’s tariffs, by Peter Edwell in The Independent, Apr 2025

History of tariffs, Shapiro.com

‘Nowhere to turn’: Small businesses dependent on imports from China are feeling more desperate, Mae Anderson on AP, Apr 2025

The Surprising History of Tariffs and Their Role in U.S. Economic Policy, Frank Holmes in US Global Investors, Feb 2025

The Awful History of Tariffs and Depressions, Scott Reynolds Nelson in Foreign Policy, Apr 2025

IMF says Trump’s tariffs will be a drag on global economic growth, David Lynch in Washington Post, Apr 2025

Trump’s Tariff Turmoil in Tech: A Timeline, Craig Galbraith on ChannelFutures.com, Apr 2025

Economic forecasts show Trump’s tariffs having major global impact, Geoff Bennett on PBS News Hour, Apr 2025

Trump tariff plans bring concern about prices, financial impact, but GOP base sees jobs long-term, Salvanto, DePinto, Backus, Khanna on CBS News, Apr 2025

Are Trump’s tariffs a bargaining chip for a new global economic order?  Greg Rosalsky on Planet Money, Apr 2025

What Will Trump’s Tariffs Do for U.S. Consumers, Workers, and Businesses?  Ryan Mulholland at the Center for American Progress, Apr 2025

Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War, York and Durante at TaxFoundation.org, Apr 2025

Tariffs: 1930 Versus 2025, National Association of Manufacturers, Apr 2025

A Brief History of Tariffs in the United States and the Dangers of their Use Today, Tyler Halloran at Fordham Journal of Corporate & Financial Law, Mar 2019

The U.S. Has a Long History of Tariffs. Here’s How Trump’s Compare, Yilin Wang in Time, Apr 2025

How the U.S. has used tariffs throughout history — and why Trump is different, economists say, Greg Iacurci on CNBC, Feb 2025

Explainer: How do tariffs work and how will they impact the American and global economy?  Harvard Kennedy School, Apr 2025

Trump was warned of empty shelves and financial turmoil from tariffs and firing Powell. His U-turn pushed stocks higher, Liptak, Zeleny, and Goldman on CNN, Apr 2025

Why Trump Is Wrong & Alexander Hamilton Was Right About Tariffs, Thom Hartmann on Hartmann Report, Sep 2024

Tariff Tantrum: Trump Plays Yosemite Sam With the Global Economy, Thom Hartmann on Hartmann Report, Apr 2025

How Could Tariffs Affect Consumers, Business and the Economy? UC Davis economists discuss the past, present and potential future of tariffs in the US, Alex Russell on UCDavis Magazine, Feb 2025

Trump says China tariffs will ‘come down substantially,’ hinting at potential U-turn, Gan and Jaramillo on CNN, Apr 2025

China tells Trump: If you want trade talks, cancel tariffs, Tom Espiner on BBC, Apr 2025

A History of Tariffs, From Hamilton to Trump, YouTube video from Tax Notes

A Brief History of the Constitution and Tariffs, Scott Bomboy at the National Constitution Center, Feb 2025

How the U.S. has used tariffs throughout history — and why Trump is different, economists say, Greg Iacurci on CNBC, Feb 2025

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