Catastrophic new predictions are out, but have they been right so far?

The IPCC just released its 6th Assessment Report on Climate Change. They drop these reports every 6-7 years and it’s easy to become inured to their bleak predictions. This year though, they seem to have stopped sugar-coating things. They’re very loud and clear that things won’t just get bad eventually, that they’re catastrophic NOW and will get worse before they get better, if they ever do at all. How seriously should we take these scientific predictions? To answer that it might be useful to know how accurate they’ve been in the past. Fortunately, someone’s been checking. Their results will give you confidence in the predictions, if not in the future of civilization…

The 2021 IPCC Report

The full report, along with supporting materials, is available here

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Sixth Assessment Report 2021

The IPCC released their report on a website with documentation, resources, links and more, but it’s still a lot to dig in to. If you scroll down we’ve added several links to good sources that summarize the report and its implications, and we hope you find them interesting and useful.

Testing Past Predictions from the “Limits to Growth” report

But before you scroll to the data on the IPCC report, here’s links on Gaya Herrington and her work analyzing past social and environmental modeling. The Club of Rome’s “Limits to Growth” report was a 1972 MIT study predicting “rapid economic growth would lead to societal collapse in the mid 21^st century”, and came to a depressing conclusion… science is real.

(update 8/24/21- Client Trygve S., a retired PSU professor who taught classes on sustainability and The Club of Rome since they published “Limits to Growth” in 1972, suggested some changes. We’ve integrated some of them below but one point that deserves special focus is that the “Limits to Growth” report covered many subjects like pollution, population, war, and more, while the IPCC is narrowly focused on Climate Change. They cover different subjects in different depths, and ‘proving’ the conclusions of one does not ‘prove’ or ‘disprove’ the conclusions of the other. Of course he’s right. The point we’re making (which he felt was valid) is that scientific modeling can always be dismissed as ‘just a guess’, and it’s important to know how accurate/precise past predictions have been. The results of the IPCC models will be untestable for years, so “Limits to Growth” gives a checkpoint in the meantime. And BTW, Trygve gave us some excellent book ideas that you’ll see in one of our upcoming Book Spotlight columns. Thanks Trygve!)

“Limits to Growth” report, Club of Rome, 1972

Update on Limits to Growth: Comparing the World3 Model with Empirical Data, Gaya Branderhorst on Harvard.edu, Mar 2020

Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction, Edward Helmore in The Guardian, Jul 2021

MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We’re on Schedule, Nafeez Ahmed on Vice.com, Jul 2021

And now more on the IPCC Report, plus even a few ways to take action if you think it’s appropriate…

IPCC, the Report and the 2026 Conference

What is the IPCC and what does it do? Ajit Niranjan and Stuart Braun on DW.com, Jul 2021

What is the IPCC and why is its new climate report different from others? Fiona Harvey in The Guardian, Aug 2021

What Is A Cop? COP26, the 2021 United Nations climate change conference

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Understanding the IPCC Report

3 Things To Know About What Scientists Say About Our Future Climate, Lauren Sommer and Ruth Talbot on NPR/OPB, Aug 2021